Nate Silver's Oscar picks and odds


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Nate Silver's Oscar picks and odds
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PostPosted:20.02.2009, 11:28 Reply with quoteBack to top

Here are Nate Silver's picks to win the Oscars.
Note that ....

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has Silver's favorite for Best Supporting actress
at a 6:1 shot. That is a bet I could never pass on and am happy to loose at 6:1.
(Note: I bet on February 18th and got 6.5:1, now the odds are 6:1)

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(born 1978 in East Lansing, Michigan) is an American statistician. He resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Silver first gained public recognition for inventing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he develops and manages for Baseball Prospectus.

In 2007 Silver began to publish analyses and predictions relating to the United States presidential election, 2008, initially under the pseudonym "Poblano." At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By Summer of that year he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and on cable news media.



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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
For Entertainment Purposes Only - copied from: ....

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As some of you may have seen, I have a feature in this week's New York Magazine in which I use a database of the last thirty years of Oscar history to predict the recipient's of this Sunday's Academy Awards.

This is fundamentally not all that difficult to do, since the winners of other awards such as the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes are quite strongly predictive of success in the Oscars. When the other major awards are split between two or more contenders, we can look at other sorts of tiebreakers: The Academy really does not take kindly to comedies or action films, for instance. And there is such a thing as "sympathy points": if an actress or actor has been nominated for an award several times without winning (such as Kate Winslet for Best Actress), she becomes more likely to collect the hardware. (From a technical standpoint, the challenge is really just to build a reasonably reliable model without overfitting).

Spoilers follow below the fold. One of these, by the way, I'm almost certain that I'm going to get wrong, although I have a pretty good excuse. For the supporting detail, please see the original copy.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (86% chance of victory)
Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (51% chance of victory)
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (71% chance of victory)
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader (68% chance of victory)
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (99.7% chance of victory)
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire (99.0% chance of victory)

-- Nate Silver at 6:40 PM


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Why care what Nate Silver says?
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Recognition
In September 2008, FiveThirtyEight became the first blog ever selected as a Notable Narrative by the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University.[41]
On the day after the first McCain-Obama Presidential Debate, Time Magazine's Joe Klein observed on the magazine's "Swampland" blog: "If there's been a rookie of the year in this year's presidential campaign coverage, it's Nate Silver--a baseball stats guy who has turned his talents to politics and produced some of the most creative slicing and dicing of polling numbers at his website fivethirtyeight.com. Today's offering is typical Silver: he takes the snap polling results and weights them according to the issues the voters considered most important--and finds that Obama won, according to the cross tabs, on the more important issues, thereby accounting for his snap poll victories."[42]
Silver appeared as a guest on "The Colbert Report" on October 7, 2008.[43]
In November 2008, Crain's Chicago Business profiled Silver as one of Chicago's "40 under 40" notable young entrepreneurs.[44]
In an article from November 9, 2008, the New York Times called Silver "perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge" out of "an election season of unlikely outcomes" and described FiveThirtyEight with its almost five million page views on Election Day as "one of the breakout online stars of the year".[45]
Newsweek.com identified Silver's November 3, 2008 article "What to Watch For – An hour-by-hour guide to election night"[46] as the 4th most viewed story on Newsweek.com in 2008.[47]
Named by Huffington Post writer Jason Linkins as the #1 of the "Ten Things that Managed to Not Suck in 2008, Media Edition." "The uncanny, poll-wrangling, stats-freaking Nate Silver took it upon himself to demonstrate that some level of governable, rational reality could be brought to bear on the confusing world of competing tracking polls, and along the way all but cemented the geek-chic trajectory of this election season."[48]
Named by progressive activist, journalist, and blogger Al Giordano as "Genius of the Year."[49]
Named by The Daily Beast as one of the "Breakout Stars of 2008": "Breakout Swami: NATE SILVER. In 2007, Nate Silver was mainly known as a world-class seamhead, a Baseball Prospectus geek who could do sexy things with ERAs. Then he started applying his statfreak principles to presidential politics under the pseudonym Poblano. When he finally outed himself in June 2008, it was clear that Silver and his website ....

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had everyone’s number—his primary projections became gospel. In the end, though, Silver only correctly predicted how 49 of the 50 states would vote. Better luck in 2012".[50]
Named by James Wolcott in Vanity Fair as one of the Winners of 2008: "No shiny arrow shot swifter and loftier from obscurity to quotable authority than Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight.com site became the expert sensation of the election season. . . . Not only did his disciplined models and microfine data mining command respect, his prognostications hit the Zen mark on Election Day. . . . Silver also became an instant cable-news savant, his geek-genius glasses and owlish mien worthy of a Starfleet sub-adjutant whose quadratic equations coolly foil an attack from a Romulan vessel while the senior officers are frantically poking at their touch screens."[51]
FiveThirtyEight.com was the winner of the category "Best Political Coverage" in the 2008 Weblog Awards.[52]
An invited featured speaker for TED2009, the 25th annual conference of "thinkers and doers."[53]

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